GOP Races to Entrench Structural Power Advantages
INSIDE: Shane Massey ... Tate Reeves ... L. Louise Lucas
The Trump II Consolidation of Power
From the racist redistricting rush across the South to the weaponization of the Justice Department to the criminalizing of opposition ideology, we’re witnessing Trump Republicans using the power of the state to consolidate and entrench their own political power and squeeze out Democrats’ ability to meaningfully contest that power.
It’s happening at the federal and state level simultaneously. In the long term, it’s an attempt to create permanent or near-permanent structural advantages for the GOP, with a big lift from the Roberts Court. In the short term, it’s aimed at hobbling Democrats with criminal investigations (or threat thereof) from the Trump DOJ and on-the-fly redistricting to keep them from effectively slowing down the Republican putsch.
Let’s start with the latest on the GOP’s anti-Black redistricting bonanza.
The Great Whitening: South Carolina Jumps Into the Fray
South Carolina
Under pressure from President Trump, the state House in South Carolina has kicked off the process of congressional redistricting before this year’s midterms, with the goal of eliminating the state’s sole majority-Black seat, held by Rep. James Clyburn (D).
The state House passed a resolution late last night on a 87-25 party-line vote that opens the door to redistricting even after the legislative session ends on May 14. It doesn’t guarantee redistricting will happen, but it keeps GOP lawmakers’ options open and allows the pressure from MAGA forces to build.
The state Senate, where a two-thirds vote is required, is expected to vote on the resolution as soon as today. Trump is aggressively lobbying Republican state Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey, with phone calls on Monday and Tuesday, pushing him to fall in line, Politico reports. Massey has been a vocal opponent of redistricting, concerned it could actually cost the GOP seats in the House.
Qualifying for House races has already closed, and military ballots have already been mailed, but things have shifted dramatically in South Carolina since the Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais. Furthermore, Trump allies are trying to leverage his successful primarying of anti-redistricting statehouse Republicans in Indiana this week to increase the pressure on reluctant GOP lawmakers in the South.
Mississippi
In an interview with the Daily Caller, Gov. Tate Reeves (R) exhibited quite a bit of wobbliness over whether he’ll push to redraw congressional maps before the midterms. In a sign of the pressure he’s under, Reeves left open the possibility of expanding an already-called special session of the legislature to include congressional redistricting, even though House primary elections have already been held.
“No final decisions have been made on congressional redistricting,” Reeves said. “We’re also looking at whether any new maps may or may not apply in 2026 or 2028.”
The state’s sole majority-Black district is held by Rep. Bennie Thompson (D).
Alabama
In an extraordinary move, the Alabama House passed a contingent measure that requires the governor to call a special session for House redistricting this summer if the Supreme Court lifts an injunction barring the state from using a 2023 map with only one majority-Black district.
What makes it extraordinary is that it would void the results of the upcoming May 19 primary and hold do-over primaries for four of the seven congressional districts where the map would change.
Tennessee
In a special session of the legislature, Tennessee Republicans unveiled a new congressional district map that would eliminate the state’s sole majority-Black district, represented by Steve Cohen (D), who is white. A vote on the new map could come as soon as today.
The Big Picture on Louisiana v. Callais
Still unspooling the many implications of what happened at the Supreme Court last month:
A critical point from Duncan Hosie in The Atlantic on how Justice Samuel Alito’s majority opinion hamstrings Congress from ever reinvigorating the Voting Rights Act:
But to view Callais as merely the final hit in the Voting Rights Act’s destruction is to miss its deeper ambition. The bigger shift is that Callais also closes off the possibility that a future Congress could respond with new legislation combating racial discrimination in the electoral system. Justice Samuel Alito’s majority opinion, joined by the other Republican appointees, rests on an interpretation of the Fifteenth Amendment that effectively bars Congress from remedying the very inequities Callais unleashes—inequities the amendment itself was designed to eradicate and prevent.
Gaby Goldstein in TPM on the the decision’s devastating impact on Black representation in state legislatures:
Most analysis since Callais has focused on Congress. But the devastation in state legislatures may be as bad or worse, and the consequences even more immediate for people’s daily lives. … Nearly half of all majority-minority state legislative districts in the South could simply disappear.
A Second Redemption
The historical perspective on where Louisiana v. Callais fits into America’s fitful fight over its own racism:
Because Louisiana v Callais is, in many ways, the culmination of a “backlash” against multiracial democracy, and because it will in turn fuel the escalating reactionary countermobilization, it signifies the end of a distinct phase in U.S. history. The Second Reconstruction is over; we are into the second “Redemption” now.
The decision in Louisiana v. Callais may be the Roberts Court’s most radical and far-reaching yet, rivaled only by the 2022 elimination of the right to abortion. It will almost certainly usher in a bleaching of the nation’s legislative bodies—federal, state, and local—unlike anything this country has seen since the “Redemption” of 1873–1877 ended Reconstruction and returned white supremacists to power throughout the South.
Pay Attention to Virginia
The Trump DOJ launched two frontal attacks on elected Democrats in Virginia yesterday:
The FBI raided the offices and business of Sen. L. Louise Lucas (D) of Portsmouth in what is reportedly a corruption probe that originated under the Biden administration but didn’t go anywhere in any public way until after it was reportedly pushed by then-acting U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan to boost Republicans before the midterm elections. Lucas, a Black woman, was one of the strongest, most outspoken proponents of Democrats’ recent mid-decade redistricting in Virginia.
The Trump DOJ announced a civil rights probe of Steve Descano, the elected Democratic state prosecutor in Fairfax County, the state’s largest, over conservative complaints that he’s too lenient on criminal defendants who are undocumented immigrants. Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon trumpeted the election-year investigation in typically MAGA terms: “This investigation will uncover whether this prosecutor is putting the community at risk in offering sweetheart deals to illegal immigrants charged with serious crimes.”
Quote of the Day
“We have a Department of Justice today that targets people for criminal prosecution simply because the president doesn’t like them. … We have a department that fails to move on cases because they might uncover facts that are inconvenient to narratives the president would like to press.”—former Special Counsel Jack Smith, in a video obtained by the NYT of remarks he made to a private gathering last month in D.C.
Criminalizing Political Opposition
As TPM’s Kosh Kovensky reported, MAGA goofball Sebastian Gorka finally rolled out a long-awaited Trumpified national counterterrorism strategy that ropes in purportedly left-wing ideologies as terroristic:
In addition to cartels and Islamist terror groups, our national CT activities will also prioritize the rapid identification and neutralization of violent secular political groups whose ideology is anti-American, radically pro-transgender, and anarchist. We will use all the tools constitutionally available to us to map them at home, identify their membership, map their ties to international organizations like Antifa, and use law enforcement tools to cripple them operationally before they can maim or kill the innocent.
This is part of the MAGA long con of creating an amorphous shadowy oppositional strawman not just to repeatedly knock down but to justify using the powers of the state to stifle political opposition.
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The Long March toward American-style race-based fascism is rapidly nearing its successful conclusion, with Jim Crow ascendant and McCarthyism right on its heels. How many more "letters of concern" penned by Schumer and Jeffries directed to the WH will it require to turn all this aside? Well, we know the answer, don't we?
Still wondering how this over-gerrymandering math works. tl;dr: A few minority- and/or Democratic-majority districts are needed to make Republicans-/white-majority districts possible. Get rid of minority districts and the number of safe R districts drop.
As usual with Trump, his ideas aren’t always smart. Back before the Roberts junta attacks on the VRA, minority districts existed for a reason.
Should add that given the apparent repulsion voters have for the GOP, query whether mass redistricting would actually help in November. Reminder: We’re talking about a fucking moron’s big idea.
BTW, another thing that hurts at least some R-majority districts would be a better D GOTV.
As for the victims of DIJ persecution, a lot of those cases are frivolous, that is destined to go nowhere, essentially just exercises in abuse and bullying, perfectly reflecting our beloved Fuhrer’s pathologies. Not to say the perversion of the DOJ into lawless thuggery as described in today’s post (or nearly every day’s post) isn’t awful but the pain inflicted is somewhat less one may think, as a general rule.
Or put like this: Trump’s crapping on the nation has done far worse things.
Really, we have to vote them all out of power, maybe even get ourselves DINO-proof majorities in Congress…