In the Stretch Run …
With voting coming to a close four weeks from tomorrow, Morning Memo will be shifting its focus to the midterms, with dual track coverage of the horse race and the outsized expectations for Democrats as an opposition party, if they win.
Setting Expectations
Usually at this point in the election cycle, expectations management is focused on not being so confident that it dampens your voters’ sense of urgency to get to the polls, mutes the post-election news coverage of your victory, and takes the edge off the mandate you win.
But this cycle Democrats are saddled with enormously unrealistic expectations about what they can and should do after the election. Even if they win both chambers of Congress, Democrats even in normal times would face structural, institutional, and political limitations that are very real and will make achieving quick, tangible, meaningful reform virtually impossible.
But these are not normal times.
President Trump has done astonishing damage across all of civic life, in the public and private sectors. He will continue to enjoy the strategic and tactical advantage that comes when you don’t care about collateral damage and when wanton destruction is easier than building enduring institutions.
In addition, many of the ingredients that gave rise to the Trump era remain: a degraded information ecosystem, a fierce right-wing propaganda machine, a nihilistic Republican Party not committed to democracy or to a robust civic life, among many others.
That doesn’t mean the election is not important or that an opposition party can serve no function — but it’s obvious that Democrats will come in shouldering the weight of pressure to move fast and decisively in a system that favors neither. The opposition will also face the unhelpful dichotomy that while the American political system has slid over the edge toward neo-fascism, most of the political press still covers campaigns and elections with the same dated tropes and stale constructs — as if things haven’t fundamentally changed.
It can’t be the case that whether we get democracy or fascism, the rule of law or authoritarianism, reform or systemic corruption rides on the result of each election. Yet, here we are.
Midterm Elections Watch: Senate Edition
NC and KS: The Senate Leadership Fund — the super PAC aligned with the Senate GOP — has paused funding in the North Carolina Senate race and plans to invest $14 million to save Sen. Roger Marshall (R) in Kansas.
Texas: Ken Paxton’s estranged wife can’t bring herself to say his name, but in a new ad urges Republicans to vote for the GOP ticket: “Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. In a general election, it’s not as much about the individual players on the team. It’s about getting the whole team across the finish line.”
AdImpact Politics@AdImpact_Pol#TXPol: "I'm Texas Senator Angela Paxton. People have asked my thoughts about this election and turns out, I have some ... I'm voting for the Republican ticket on November 3rd." Texas PAC is up with a new ad featuring Angela Paxton, Ken Paxton's estranged wife.
3:42 PM · Oct 3, 2026 · 3.02M Views1.33K Replies · 595 Reposts · 2.76K Likes
Midterm Elections Watch: House Edition
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee political director Brooke Butler predicts Democrats will carry the House with as many as 240 seats. Democrats have held a House majority that large only once in the last three decades: the high-water mark of 257 seats after the 2008 election.
If Republicans lose the House, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) is likely to run for House minority leader, Punchbowl reports: “Jordan won’t admit it publicly, but his inner circle of aides, advisers and friends is plotting for a leadership election, and he’s discussed it with people close to him.”
Midterm Election Shenanigans Watch
The George Election Board’s request for the Trump DOJ to intervene in the state’s voting systems was a rogue act by the board’s executive director, the board chair told Votebeat. More here.
Reuters: How Trump’s obsession with ‘rigged’ voting machines spread across US government
Contrary to earlier reports, election denier Kurt Olsen is still employed at the Justice Department, according to the Washington Post. The newspaper had previously reported that Olsen resigned not just as head of the “grand conspiracy” investigation in south Florida, but from DOJ entirely:
A message Olsen sent Monday announcing his departure was originally misinterpreted by officials in Washington and Miami as a full resignation from the Justice Department, but Olsen later clarified to his bosses that he still intended to remain a department employee, even though he is no longer attached to the case, one of those people said Wednesday. His current assignment remains unclear.
Shock! Trump Behind Pro-Trump Govt Ads
President Trump was directly involved in ordering the use of $20 million in DHS funds to air TV ads in the stretch run of the midterm elections extolling his presidency, the NYT reports:
Mr. Trump was eager to see the laudatory ads on the air and told Russell T. Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, to come up with the money from within the government, the people said. Mark Paoletta, the budget office’s counsel, and Will Scharf, the White House counsel, both said it would be legal to use D.H.S. funds. The president and Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, both spoke with Markwayne Mullin, the homeland security secretary, about the ads.
Quote of the Day
“My party is being infiltrated by people like Bo French. Nick Fuentes goes to Dallas and meets with a bunch of Republican leaders. This guy is a Nazi. We’ve got all these people getting on their little podcasts and so forth, saying: ‘We’re just asking questions about the Jews.’”—Karl Rove
Good Read
TPM’s Christopher Mathias: Chris Rufo — Known For ‘DEI’ and ‘CRT’ Panics — Tries to Make ‘the Indian Question’ a Thing
Judge Blocks Border Wall In Big Bend
A federal judge in El Paso on Friday temporarily blocked construction of the border wall in the Big Bend region, including the eponymous national park.
Mass Deportation Watch
Chicago: Marimar Martínez, the woman shot five times by a Border Patrol agent during Operation Midway Blitz, is expected to file a federal lawsuit today “that includes new ballistics analysis and video animation showing the agent was not in harm’s way when he opened fire,” the Chicago Tribune reports.
Maine: DHS agents not only tracked and intimidated people observing ICE activity during Operation Catch of the Day, but allegedly stored information about them in a Palantir-built database, according to newly unsealed court filings reviewed by Wired.
New York: A Hasidic Jew who protested against the Israeli flag may now be deported, the New York Times reports.
Thread of the Day
Seth Cotlar on “remigration“
US Rushes Bombers Home From UK
NYT: “The United States rushed over the weekend to withdraw all 12 B-1 Air Force bombers from an air base in southern England after commanders received new threats about an Iran-backed plot against the installation, two U.S. officials said on Sunday.”
Dennis Hastert, 1942-2026
The longest-serving Republican speaker of the House — who turned out to be, in the words of his sentencing judge, a “serial child molester” — died of natural causes at his Illinois home over the weekend at age 84.
Dennis Hastert served in Congress for 20 years, eight of them as speaker. But it wasn’t until 2015, eight years after he left office, that his abuse decades earlier of wrestlers while he was a wrestling coach emerged. Hastert pleaded guilty to illegally structuring payments to one of his victims and served 13 months in prison.
It remains one of the mysteries of American politics that the Denny Hastert saga — a tragic coda to the corruption of the Tom Delay era — never broke through into the wider political consciousness.
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These people are so foul that it made a cold day in hell possible: I agreed with Karl Rove about something.
I’d love for any one of these so-called “pure American” spouting bigots to take a class in US immigration history, since they have failed to grasp the most basic facts of our country’s history. And I’d really love for their supporters to wake up to the fact that anyone who isn’t white, Christian, straight, cisgender, and male isn’t welcome by the current GOP. (Women only welcome as barbie doll arm-candy or trad wives, it seems.)
May the GOP never ever recover from the legacy of what they are sowing.
(P.s…. Please include an image or embedded tweet anytime you must link to xitter. You can’t see the one near the bottom of the newsletter without signing in to X, which is a hard pass.)
Never "misunderestimate" the power of institutionalism within the Democratic leadership in the House and Senate. Schumer/Jeffries will quickly take the air out of the rank-and-file ready to do serious battle with trump and the MAGA contagion, with an eye toward the SV technogarchy who may be changing sides as to which party gets showered with billions in "campaign contributions", aka bribes.
TBH, the only way a supine Congress aggressively reclaims its Art. I powers is to deep-six current party leaders and embrace a Dem-led, ultra-partisan restoration of fundamental Congressional authority to govern, full
stop.
A few noisy hearings, pummeling trump allies and his corrupt family members, may attract eyeballs, but crafting legislation — assuming a Dem House and Senate after midterm elections — is the best and only way to establish bonafides heading toward 2028...and these steps must include dumping the filibuster!
Sure, trump will veto bills, but so what. A demonstrable showing of a will for change is the least a new Congress can accomplish, and show the electorate that the Democrats mean business — the People's business.