There is a third thing we know with certainty--if Biden had remained the candidate and the Democrats lost the White House the “what ifs” of recrimination and second-guessing over the 2024 presidential campaign would have lasted the rest of our natural lives.
I felt saddened, relieved and heartened by Biden's wise and heroic decision.
David, an outstanding piece. Excellent analysis that leads to a concluding paragraph that brilliantly and eloquently focuses our attention on the most important issue in this election, the survival of our democratic republic.
MAGA Republicans are officially screwed, IMHO! I can't wait for Harris to face off with Tr**p and call him a convicted felon until his pretend bullet wound starts to ooze. And constantly remind everyone just how old Tr**p is...
All that remains is to select a competent and experienced VP who can toss Vance's quotes about Tr**p back in his face.
I'm all in for Harris and getting this going quickly. The fact that all the serious contenders have thrown their support to her helps to quiet speculation and angst. Good move all!
One more for our collection of "unprecedented". We can hope that maybe this is a blessing like a slap in the face to wake up the disenchanted or uninterested and the uninformed or misinformed electorate.
Whatever effect Biden’s replacement will have on the popular vote, Trump’s Electoral College and SCOTUS advantages are and remain huge. In any sort of normal environment that would be a huge area of coverage. Instead our elite news media give us 🦗.
Meanwhile, as ever since 2015, do their very best to ignore Trump’s unfitness for office. Indeed, having served already, he’s somehow yet more unfit than 2015.
Because we’re in sort of mourning over the media and cowardly Democrats (but, to go Will Rogers there, I repeat myself), I’ll restrain myself on all the excellent reasons for pessimism even if they reality-based. That said, the role of the popular vote this cycle is of course important but not as important as other things.
Oops! Forgot to throw out the question of how Biden’s quitting and circumstances re same will affect down ballot races and D voter turnout out. I can see Harris being a plus, can’t see anyone who’d be better.
Also forgot: House proceedings 1/6/2025 can be expected to play out how?
I tend not to follow polls because sooo many of them are such garbage as exercises in polling: poor questioning, failing to break down the respondents in a way to clarify and instead obfuscate, and unacceptably high margins of error.
My feeling is that whatever polls say, the Electoral College skews hugely in Trump's favor regardless of the popular (which I can't see him winning). And then there the X factors of the probability of violence on 1/6, the question of how proceedings in the House on that date will go, and Bush v Gore-level interference from SCOTUS.
OTOH, I'm overly hopeful that a woman of color heading the Democrat's ticket will incite a large group of Democratic voters that my fears won't manifest.
Time will tell, and my pessimism is not meant as a reason not to vote, just not to vote with excessive hopes. The GOP have driven the nation into an awful state starting with Reagan. The metaphor du jour is that Trump is the tip of the iceberg but it's the rest of the berg that sunk the Titanic. Moral, I suppose, is not to focus so much on the clearly visible that one ignores what's difficult to see.
This is not what I expected. For once I think Democrats have done due diligence. I think they have private polled the crap out of this and are for once comfortable with the results. And 100 million in 24 hours is not shabby.
Can't quite parse Obama's position in all this, with his "open process" call...does he want a shit-ton of leading Dems to throw their names into the ring pre-convention? Or is this a ploy to test actual Harris sentiment, then to go with the flow? As one who had called for Joe Biden to "carefully consider his position" as candidate, what exactly did Obama expect when the withdrawal came...Joe saying, "you guys figure it out", or doing exactly what he did and endorse Harris unconditionally?
Or, more cynically, is Obama just wanting to remain "relevant"?
On the other hand, we have the spectacle of non-Dem "independent" Joe Manchin hinting about...running too? Go away, Manchin, your day is done.
Brilliant analysis, in my opinion, on day #2 to absorb this massive transformation of the this election rollercoaster.
I’ve been ‘ridin’ with Biden’. Now, full on support for Harris!!
Well said, thoughtful. Thank you! Going to be quite a ride.
There is a third thing we know with certainty--if Biden had remained the candidate and the Democrats lost the White House the “what ifs” of recrimination and second-guessing over the 2024 presidential campaign would have lasted the rest of our natural lives.
I felt saddened, relieved and heartened by Biden's wise and heroic decision.
David, an outstanding piece. Excellent analysis that leads to a concluding paragraph that brilliantly and eloquently focuses our attention on the most important issue in this election, the survival of our democratic republic.
MAGA Republicans are officially screwed, IMHO! I can't wait for Harris to face off with Tr**p and call him a convicted felon until his pretend bullet wound starts to ooze. And constantly remind everyone just how old Tr**p is...
All that remains is to select a competent and experienced VP who can toss Vance's quotes about Tr**p back in his face.
Excellent analysis David.
Brilliant assessment - thank you.
I'm all in for Harris and getting this going quickly. The fact that all the serious contenders have thrown their support to her helps to quiet speculation and angst. Good move all!
Thank you for this thoughtful piece.
One more for our collection of "unprecedented". We can hope that maybe this is a blessing like a slap in the face to wake up the disenchanted or uninterested and the uninformed or misinformed electorate.
Whatever effect Biden’s replacement will have on the popular vote, Trump’s Electoral College and SCOTUS advantages are and remain huge. In any sort of normal environment that would be a huge area of coverage. Instead our elite news media give us 🦗.
Meanwhile, as ever since 2015, do their very best to ignore Trump’s unfitness for office. Indeed, having served already, he’s somehow yet more unfit than 2015.
Because we’re in sort of mourning over the media and cowardly Democrats (but, to go Will Rogers there, I repeat myself), I’ll restrain myself on all the excellent reasons for pessimism even if they reality-based. That said, the role of the popular vote this cycle is of course important but not as important as other things.
Oops! Forgot to throw out the question of how Biden’s quitting and circumstances re same will affect down ballot races and D voter turnout out. I can see Harris being a plus, can’t see anyone who’d be better.
Also forgot: House proceedings 1/6/2025 can be expected to play out how?
I thought 538 had Biden at 277? Comfortable lead if Harris maintains it.
I tend not to follow polls because sooo many of them are such garbage as exercises in polling: poor questioning, failing to break down the respondents in a way to clarify and instead obfuscate, and unacceptably high margins of error.
My feeling is that whatever polls say, the Electoral College skews hugely in Trump's favor regardless of the popular (which I can't see him winning). And then there the X factors of the probability of violence on 1/6, the question of how proceedings in the House on that date will go, and Bush v Gore-level interference from SCOTUS.
OTOH, I'm overly hopeful that a woman of color heading the Democrat's ticket will incite a large group of Democratic voters that my fears won't manifest.
Time will tell, and my pessimism is not meant as a reason not to vote, just not to vote with excessive hopes. The GOP have driven the nation into an awful state starting with Reagan. The metaphor du jour is that Trump is the tip of the iceberg but it's the rest of the berg that sunk the Titanic. Moral, I suppose, is not to focus so much on the clearly visible that one ignores what's difficult to see.
Interesting. On Jan 6, 2025, will Harris preside over her own certification?
Possibly, unlikely given the Electoral College.
But if she got that far, I’d expect maximum interferences if you know what I mean — J6 2021 and/or SCOTUS.
This is not what I expected. For once I think Democrats have done due diligence. I think they have private polled the crap out of this and are for once comfortable with the results. And 100 million in 24 hours is not shabby.
Can't quite parse Obama's position in all this, with his "open process" call...does he want a shit-ton of leading Dems to throw their names into the ring pre-convention? Or is this a ploy to test actual Harris sentiment, then to go with the flow? As one who had called for Joe Biden to "carefully consider his position" as candidate, what exactly did Obama expect when the withdrawal came...Joe saying, "you guys figure it out", or doing exactly what he did and endorse Harris unconditionally?
Or, more cynically, is Obama just wanting to remain "relevant"?
On the other hand, we have the spectacle of non-Dem "independent" Joe Manchin hinting about...running too? Go away, Manchin, your day is done.