Polls are broken. Democrats have consistently been underrepresented for years. I don't have any confidence that pollsters are going to get it right any time soon.
Well, let's be ruthlessly honest here...to the tRump/MAGA set, "DEI = n*****, and the racism that surfaced and remained public in the Obama years is retuning itself with a vengeance. Reagan's "welfare queens" never left the GOP vocabulary, and it's been updated with the DEI characterization used exclusively as a slur.
Folks, this shite never went away, and tRump/Vance will make sure we all know it.
The reason the Trump campaign holds outdoor rallies is they can't afford to pay for a venue for an indoor rally, since all the money raised goes in Widdle Mushroom Boy's defense fund.
I like to think my pessimism for this cycle is fact-based so even high on Harris Hopium®, I'm happy that at the least we're a really f***ing race. Whatever the tailwinds for Trump, the cakewalk is over. Too, just being black/woman/not a mom, she will be driving the crazy people--a/k/a the GOP, top down--yet crazier 24/7 up to election day. As I enjoy saying all the time, no Democrat can or would describe Republicans in terms as negative as those in which they voluntarily and freely choose to appear. So huge advantage to Harris over Biden. She might also attract pro-choice Republican voters in a way Biden wouldn't--for fairly obvious reasons, of course.
Too, I might still be OD'ing on paranoia since the Trump shooting but I'm so amazed how smoothly things went in the period from Biden's dropping out til Harris' nomination became a done deal that I'm convinced that much of it had been set up with the resignation much more of a last step than a first.
I think the more benign way of saying that last part is that everyone (including Harris) knew she was the most obvious choice to succeed Biden if he turned down the nomination, and there was a non-zero chance he'd do that, so there was a strong incentive to make sure she had her ducks in a row beforehand. It's a good thing she was prepared for this eventuality. And it's not surprising that Biden's delegates would largely follow his lead and back her.
I'm trying to imagine what it would be like if there was some kind of serious mini-primary competition unfolding right now. At best it could introduce good contenders to a wider audience, but at what cost? I don't think it would make our party or the argument against Trump stronger at this point.
I don't even want to think about the logistics of a primary to be set up and conducted within three weeks or so. And a mini-primary is as insulting as no primary.
As for the choosing Harris, I have a lot more in mind than that: the speed of her locking things in, the logistics--a lot was done amazingly smoothly in practically no time. The time was also as close to perfect as possible: between conventions with nothing anticipated to interfere with getting the message out. OTOH, I've been more susceptible to paranoia since the Trump shooting...
Of course, the smoothness helped forgetting the cowardice the democrats showed.
There was a case to be made privately to get Biden to yield to health-related reality even before the primary. I am not the least sure that party cowardice and hysteria and the news media push actually helped anything. To be clear: I'm far from in love with Biden; his quitting anytime wouldn't be any problem. Too, as I noted, no better candidate against Trump than a woman of color so the monsters will so crazed they'll be unable to control their overt hate and insanity. If Harris can't get the repelled-by-Trump bloc to the polls, no one can.
Thank you David for an
excellent newsletter this
morning.
🌴All in for Kamala Harris!🌴
Polls are broken. Democrats have consistently been underrepresented for years. I don't have any confidence that pollsters are going to get it right any time soon.
We are not going back: indeed!
"The world is full of people whose notion of a satisfactory future is, in fact, a return to the idealized past." - Robertson Davies
Thanks for the aerial photo of Yellowstone. The clip I saw of it exploding was confusing. And thanks again for morning memo!
Just called Hageman’s DC office to leave a message. Told her “bottom of the barrel” description fits her to a T. Ewwww.
Well, let's be ruthlessly honest here...to the tRump/MAGA set, "DEI = n*****, and the racism that surfaced and remained public in the Obama years is retuning itself with a vengeance. Reagan's "welfare queens" never left the GOP vocabulary, and it's been updated with the DEI characterization used exclusively as a slur.
Folks, this shite never went away, and tRump/Vance will make sure we all know it.
The reason the Trump campaign holds outdoor rallies is they can't afford to pay for a venue for an indoor rally, since all the money raised goes in Widdle Mushroom Boy's defense fund.
The bleachers are rockin'. The GOP is toast.
Mike Johnson wants the campaign to tone down the rhetoric about race, gender, and DEI.
Why, Mike?? Are you saying that hitting Kamala on race, gender, and DEI are not winning messages?
I like to think my pessimism for this cycle is fact-based so even high on Harris Hopium®, I'm happy that at the least we're a really f***ing race. Whatever the tailwinds for Trump, the cakewalk is over. Too, just being black/woman/not a mom, she will be driving the crazy people--a/k/a the GOP, top down--yet crazier 24/7 up to election day. As I enjoy saying all the time, no Democrat can or would describe Republicans in terms as negative as those in which they voluntarily and freely choose to appear. So huge advantage to Harris over Biden. She might also attract pro-choice Republican voters in a way Biden wouldn't--for fairly obvious reasons, of course.
Too, I might still be OD'ing on paranoia since the Trump shooting but I'm so amazed how smoothly things went in the period from Biden's dropping out til Harris' nomination became a done deal that I'm convinced that much of it had been set up with the resignation much more of a last step than a first.
I think the more benign way of saying that last part is that everyone (including Harris) knew she was the most obvious choice to succeed Biden if he turned down the nomination, and there was a non-zero chance he'd do that, so there was a strong incentive to make sure she had her ducks in a row beforehand. It's a good thing she was prepared for this eventuality. And it's not surprising that Biden's delegates would largely follow his lead and back her.
I'm trying to imagine what it would be like if there was some kind of serious mini-primary competition unfolding right now. At best it could introduce good contenders to a wider audience, but at what cost? I don't think it would make our party or the argument against Trump stronger at this point.
I don't even want to think about the logistics of a primary to be set up and conducted within three weeks or so. And a mini-primary is as insulting as no primary.
As for the choosing Harris, I have a lot more in mind than that: the speed of her locking things in, the logistics--a lot was done amazingly smoothly in practically no time. The time was also as close to perfect as possible: between conventions with nothing anticipated to interfere with getting the message out. OTOH, I've been more susceptible to paranoia since the Trump shooting...
Of course, the smoothness helped forgetting the cowardice the democrats showed.
There was a case to be made privately to get Biden to yield to health-related reality even before the primary. I am not the least sure that party cowardice and hysteria and the news media push actually helped anything. To be clear: I'm far from in love with Biden; his quitting anytime wouldn't be any problem. Too, as I noted, no better candidate against Trump than a woman of color so the monsters will so crazed they'll be unable to control their overt hate and insanity. If Harris can't get the repelled-by-Trump bloc to the polls, no one can.
🤞🏻